Matthew Leitch, educator, consultant, researcher HOME - An overview of risk/uncertainty management
- The risk management we prefer
- Views on current risk management guidance and standards
- through your skills
- by improving an organization
- beyond listing risks
- by automating thinking
- other themes
MATERIALS BY TYPE |
## Working In Uncertainty## Manage risk/uncertainty by automating thinkingOne reason we tend to think too narrowly and ignore or underestimate our uncertainty is that doing better is hard work. Thinking through multiple alternatives is tiring and time-consuming, so we tend not to bother. Automating some of this thinking can save us time and energy, and often allow us to get better results too. Today's laptop computers can perform miracles of useful number crunching. ## Overview articles## Articles with code explaining simple Bayesian techniques in Excel- Bayesian recipes (1): Simple, efficient statistics for rates
- Bayesian recipes (2): Simple, efficient statistics for rare(ish) events
- Bayesian recipes (3): Simple, efficient statistics for Normal distributions
## Articles with interesting new thinking on probability- Learning and teaching probability and statistics
- Taming probability notation
- Specifying regression
- Probability axioms in Bayesian language
- Relative probabilities
## The book
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Words © 2015 Matthew Leitch