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Working In Uncertainty
Manage risk/uncertainty by automating thinking
One reason we tend to think too narrowly and ignore or underestimate our uncertainty is that doing better is hard work. Thinking through multiple alternatives is tiring and time-consuming, so we tend not to bother. Automating some of this thinking can save us time and energy, and often allow us to get better results too. Today's laptop computers can perform miracles of useful number crunching.
Articles with code explaining simple Bayesian techniques in Excel
Articles with interesting new thinking on probability
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Words © 2015 Matthew Leitch